Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.22 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 90th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the best TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Cons

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle has put up quite a few less air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
George Kittle’s 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 51.1.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards