Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+100) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
- The model projects George Kittle to garner 6.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has seen marked improvement this year, now pacing 55.0 per game.
- George Kittle’s 49.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 42.2.
- George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a material progression in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 49.0 figure.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
- When it comes to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
