Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+100) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
The model projects George Kittle to garner 6.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has seen marked improvement this year, now pacing 55.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 49.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a material progression in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 49.0 figure.

Cons

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards