Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Evan Engram has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 30.0 yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Cons
- The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
