Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The UFC returns to Orlando after Thanksgiving and a much-needed break for the promotion. This weekend, the card is headlined by two of the sport’s best strikers, when Kevin Holland faces Stephen Thompson. We also see the return of legend Rafael Dos Anjos as he faces Bam Bam Bryan Barbarena. Tai Tuivasa also makes his return after his shot at the belt against the heavyweight champion Cyril Gane. Tuivasa takes on another heavy hitter in Sergey Pavlovich in a fight that is sure to shake the cage and seats in the arena in Orlando.
In the prelims, we have legends and fan favorites such as Clay Guida, Darren Elkins, Angela Hill and Michael Johnson. All are looking to get back in the win column and put on a show for the fans in Florida. Below I breakdown my favorite fights from this weekend and give you my best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Main Card
Holland vs. Thompson Odds
Kevin Holland -165, Stephen Thompson +140
After a two-fight winning streak was ended by Khamzat Chiamev, Holland collected the bag after stepping in on short notice and walked away from the sport of MMA. Then a favorable matchup against Thompson was brought up, and Holland couldn’t refuse. Holland has been one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster since signing with the promotion, he has fought eight times since 2020 and is finally getting a matchup against someone who doesn’t wrestle. Thompson is best known for being one of the nicest human beings on the planet. Still, one mistake against this striker and you’ll wake up in the back of an ambulance. Thompson has been in the UFC since 2012. He is one of the best strikers to ever step into the octagon — the future Hall of Famer is 16-6-1 overall as a pro and 11-6-1 in the UFC. Thompson averages 3.85 significant strikes landed per minute and is fairly accurate, landing 43% of strikes thrown. Thompson defends well at a 56% clip and fights at a very methodical pace. Rarely do you see Thompson getting into brawls, and against a powerful Holland I don’t think brawling or exchanging in the pocket part of the game plan this weekend. Holland averages the same number of significant strikes landed per minute and is slightly more accurate, landing 54% of strikes thrown. The hurdle for Thompson this week will be overcoming the reach and power of Holland. Holland has a three-inch height advantage and six-inch reach advantage and has more power regardless of the strike. On the other hand, Thompson has finished fights with his legs, and if he hopes to win this weekend he will have to close the distance and move well enough to stay clear of the power. From a betting perspective, I believe Holland has all the edge as he can finally fight without worrying about a takedown — in fact, he actually possess more of a ground threat in this match up and wouldn’t be surprised if he subbed Thompson at some point in this fight.
The Bet: Kevin Holland ML -165
Nicolau vs. Schnell Odds
Matheus Nicolau -400, Matt Schnell +300
One of my favorite fights of this weekend features Nicolau and Schnell. Both fighters are coming off exciting wins and look to continue their run to the top in the flyweight division. This matchup should be featured on a bigger card in my opinion, but to kick off the last leg of the year for the UFC I think it’s perfect and should be nothing but fireworks from the moment the ref says go. Schnell is 6-5-0 overall in the UFC and has only been to a decision four times in 11 fights, averaging eight minutes of fight time. Schnell looks for the finish with every strike and in every transition on the ground, and if you watched his last fight against Sumudaerji then you know he has the durability of a zombie. Schnell, averages 4.34 significant strikes landed per minute but only connects on 39% of strikes, and against a very accurate Nicolau that lands 52% of his strikes, it can be a concern for schnell. Nicolau is the smaller fighter by two inches in height and reach but by far the more skilled and technical striker. Nicolau doesn’t mind getting into an exchange as he usually enters and exits the pocket quickly, Schnell on the other hand rather creates chaos and he doesn’t mind putting it on the line for the fans every time he steps into the octagon. This is a very even matched fight but from a betting perspective I am going to have to side with the more technical fighter Nicolau. Schnell can find a finish as he did in his last bout and so many others, but he was dropped seven times before finding a Hail Mary submission against Sumudaerji, and against Nicolau, I don’t think he’ll have that many opportunities to find a finish after being hurt by one of Nicolau’s left hooks.
The Bet: Matheus Nicolau by KO/TKO or submission +115/in Round 3 or decision +105
Tuivasa vs. Pavlovich Odds
Tai Tuivasa +180, Sergey Pavlovich -225
It always exciting when you get to watch heavyweights step into the octagon, even better when the heavyweights stepping into the octagon are Tuivasa and Pavlovich. In terms of technical skill, Pavlovich is well rounded in all aspects of MMA and moves well for his size. His biggest advantage this weekend will be his reach as he nearly has 10 inches of a reach advantage over Tuivasa. Pavlovich also utilizes his wrestling better, which may be stifled at first, but the more the pace starts to wear on Tuivasa it could lead to an early finish. Pavlovich also averages nearly three more significant strikes than Tuivasa at 6.83. Tuivasa will step into the cage with anyone that walks the planet and you have to respect it, but, I don’t think it’s going to be enjoyable for tai and if he finds a finish I won’t be surprised but I just can’t initially bet against pavilion knowing how much more well-rounded he is. I see this fight going similarly to how Tuivasa last fight went, and Pavlovich will find a finish early and violently.
The Bet: Sergey Pavlovich in Rounds 1 or 2 -150
Hermansson vs. Dolidze Odds
Jack Hermansson -170, Roman Dolidze +145
A potential Fight of the Night bonus will be paid out after Hermansson faces the dangerous Dolidze. Hermansson is 3-2-0 in his last five with two wins by decision and one by submission. Dolidze is 4-1 in his last five fights and has two first-round finishes in his last two. Dolidze is still new in the UFC and has only had six fights thus far, with every fight being more exciting than the last. Prior to the UFC, Dolidze never went past the first and second round, let alone to the judges’ scorecard. Dolidze averages nine minutes of fight time while averaging 2.60 significant strikes landed per minute. Dolidze is not much of a volume fighter as he mixes in wrestling and averages 2.44 takedowns per 14 minutes. For Hermansson to have success in this fight, he will have to wrestle and avoid the power like he did in his last fight against Chris Curtis. Hermansson also averages a higher output nearly tripling the significant strikes Dolidze throws. This fight will either end early in the first round or be a clinch affair that ends up with both fighters taking each-other down multiple times and looking to do damage with elbows and knees up against the cage.
The Bet: Jack Hermansson by KO/TKO or decision -135
Anders vs. Daukaus Odds
Kyle Daukaus -220, Eryk Anders +185
Kicking off the main card, we have another Fight of the Night potential when Daukaus faces the former football player for Alabama and national champion Anders. When breaking down the tape between these guys, the power and athleticism belong to Anders, while the boxing technique and jiujitsu belong to Daukaus. Like most football athletes who cross over into MMA, the game plan for Anders has always been to get this fight to the ground so that he can use his power to ground and pound his opponents. It worked on the regional scene, and it got him into the UFC, where he was forced to evolve. Anders uses his jab and aggression to close the distance and get fights up against the cage and with such a big frame it’s always a concern that his gas tank may not hold up late in a fight. Daukaus is simply better than Anders everywhere in my opinion. If Daukaus can avoid brawling with Anders and sticking with his technique, I believe he can not only win but possibly find a finish late in the third round. Anders may fight like he’s shot out of a cannon at first but the longer this fight goes the better for Daukaus, who will have to use movement and grappling to tire Anders and drag him into deep waters.
The Bet: Kyle Daukaus in Round 3 or decision +115/Sprinkle Daukaus in Round 3 by KO/TKO +2800
Prelims
Price vs. Rowe Odds
Niko Price -145, Phillip Rowe +115
The fights this week are very well matched, and another example of that is in the feature prelim when Rowe squares up against the always-exciting Price. I understand Price has slightly more experience on a big stage, but when you compare technique and skill, not only is Rowe more accurate, but he also lands with more devastation. Rowe has only been to a decision once while in the UFC, and it was against gave green who wrestled well and was able to neutralize Rowe. Since then, Rowe has gone on to be 4-1 in his last five and 2-1 in the UFC with two finishes. Rowe is my dog of the week, and with not many differences between the fighters, I will lean with Rowe and say that he finds a finish in this fight. Niko has been in the UFC longer and outside of that I don’t see him having too many more advantages over Rowe.
The Bet: Phillip Rowe ML +115
Pearce vs. Elkins Odds
Jonathan Pearce -450, Darren Elkins +340
Every time Elkins signs up to fight, you can expect one thing: Damage. Elkins has been in the UFC since 2010 and is a veteran of the sport, the actual definition of leaving everything you got on the mat. Elkins is 27-10-1 overall in his pro career and win or lose has always been a fan favorite. At 38 years of age, I believe the best years are behind Elkins, and even though he seems to still have gas left in the tank, this matchup against Pearce could get ugly quickly. Pearce is an aggressive fighter who wrestles well and also packs power behind his strikes. Pearce not only averages 5.78 significant strikes landed per minute, but he also averages an impressive 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. I can’t see this going any other way than a finish for Pearce. Elkins may need to think about hanging it up soon and this fight will be proof of that.
The Bet: Jonathan Pearce by KO/TKO or submission -125/Pearce vs. Elkins fight goes the distance -165
Levy vs. Valdez Odds
Natan Levy -210, Genaro Valdez +165
Adding another potential Fight of the Night to the list is Levy vs. Valdez. Valdez was part of a historic fight on the Contender Series when he went two exciting rounds with Patrik White that left fans and Dana White standing once it was over. A fight that would’ve been Fight of the Night on any UFC paperview, Valdez earned his ticket to the big show after being dropped multiple times and still finding a finish late in the second round. That heart and determination is what White loves and why I believe Valdez belongs in the UFC, but in this matchup against Levy, if he can’t create chaos with his standup and aggression, he is going to have a long night with the grappling specialist Levy. Both fighters can grapple, but I believe Levy has seen the better competition and his time in the UFC now will produce a master class performance this weekend.
The Bet: Levy by KO/TKO or submission -115
