Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
Durham Smythe has gone out for fewer passes this season (73.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.1%).
After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last season, Durham Smythe has posted big gains this season, now sitting at 14.0 per game.
Durham Smythe has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) to TEs this year (69.2%).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards