Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeVante ParkerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, DeVante Parker’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-118) after it opened @ 34.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
- DeVante Parker’s 85.9% Route% this season conveys a meaningful growth in his pass game utilization over last season’s 68.8% figure.
- DeVante Parker’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, accumulating 4.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.39 figure last season.
Cons
- Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Patriots.
- DeVante Parker has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
- DeVante Parker’s 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 45.0 rate.
- DeVante Parker’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 64.6% to 60.4%.
- DeVante Parker’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 11.43 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
