Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-131) after it opened @ 51.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to earn 7.7 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- When it comes to air yards, DeAndre Hopkins ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among wideouts this year, accumulating a striking 112.0 per game.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 69.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for wideouts.
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.3 per game) this year.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
- DeAndre Hopkins has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
