Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Titans vs. Colts
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Chigoziem Okonkwo is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 83rd percentile among TEs with 4.6 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been much more involved in his team’s pass game this season (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (10.8%).
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.3 per game) this year.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 71.9% to 67.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
