NFL

Bets

December 1, 2023

Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brevin Jordan from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Brevin JordanReceiving Yards

Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-114).

Pros

The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Brevin Jordan to be much more involved in his offense’s passing attack in this week’s game (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).
Brevin Jordan’s 100.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 49.2% figure.
This year, the shaky Broncos defense has allowed a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Cons

This game’s line implies a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Brevin Jordan has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (4.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards