Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brevin JordanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Broncos
Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The projections expect Brevin Jordan to be much more involved in his offense’s passing attack in this week’s game (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).
- Brevin Jordan’s 100.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 49.2% figure.
- This year, the shaky Broncos defense has allowed a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s line implies a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Brevin Jordan has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (4.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
