Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devon Achane

Devon AchaneRushing Yards

Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Devon Achane to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game in this week’s game (39.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.4% in games he has played).
When it comes to run-blocking (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
Devon Achane has averaged 94.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to running backs (100th percentile).
With a stellar total of 12.10 adjusted yards per carry (99th percentile), Devon Achane places among the leading RBs in football this year.

Cons

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 36.2% run rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards