Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-139) after it opened @ 60.5 (-119).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
This week, Brandon Aiyuk is expected by the model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk has put up quite a few more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily used in his team’s passing offense.
Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (83.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Cons

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards