Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Browns
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Browns to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Browns this year (a monstrous 66.5 per game on average).
- In this contest, Amari Cooper is expected by the projections to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.0 targets.
- Amari Cooper has put up far more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Amari Cooper’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 64.9% to 58.2%.
- The Rams pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56.3%) to wideouts this year (56.3%).
- This year, the strong Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a measly 7.2 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
