Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. Titans
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has been among the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 74.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- A.J. Brown has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
- The Tennessee Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
