Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 58.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.3 per game) this year.
A.J. Brown has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (93.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.
The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco’s LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards