Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 266.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (276.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate passers in football this year with a stellar 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.1 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 219.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.20 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
