Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 290.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 290.5 (-110) after it opened @ 280.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
- Tua Tagovailoa has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (299.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.0% to 70.0%.
- With a terrific 8.76 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa stands among the most effective passers in the league.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
