Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-105/-124).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-124) after it opened @ 224.5 (-113).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Russell Wilson’s 68.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable boost in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 59.3% mark.
- This year, the poor Texans defense has conceded a whopping 265.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football.
Cons
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive blueprint to skew 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Broncos this year (just 53.2 per game on average).
- As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
