WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Ravens vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 227.5 (+100) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (282.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Russell Wilson’s passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 57.2%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the worst per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.48 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
- The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks project as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
