Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kyler Murray from EV Insight

Kyler MurrayPassing Yards

Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 208.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 208.5 (-115) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per snap.
This year, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a whopping 5.37 YAC.

Cons

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Kyler Murray is projected by the predictive model to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.7.
Kyler Murray’s 59.5% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a noteable decrease in his throwing precision over last season’s 64.5% rate.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards