Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 248.5 (-127) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.1% Completion%, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 8.07 yards-per-target while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 33.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards