Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. 49ers
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 58.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.3 per game) this year.
- Jalen Hurts ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The model projects Jalen Hurts to throw 33.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
- The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
- The 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco’s LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
