Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight

Jalen HurtsPassing Yards

Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-114).

Pros

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 58.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.3 per game) this year.
Jalen Hurts ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The model projects Jalen Hurts to throw 33.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco’s LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards