Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-115) after it opened @ 261.5 (-113).

Pros

The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
C.J. Stroud has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among QBs.
With an impressive rate of 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game (94th percentile), C.J. Stroud places as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
This year, the poor Broncos defense has surrendered a monstrous 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

Cons

This game’s line implies a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
C.J. Stroud comes in as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 62.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards