Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Broncos
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-115) after it opened @ 261.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- C.J. Stroud has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among QBs.
- With an impressive rate of 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game (94th percentile), C.J. Stroud places as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has surrendered a monstrous 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.
Cons
- This game’s line implies a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- C.J. Stroud comes in as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 62.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards
289
Passing Yards
