Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-160/+116).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 254.5 (+116) after it opened @ 255.5 (-106).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
- Brock Purdy has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
- Brock Purdy’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.4% to 71.4%.
- Brock Purdy’s pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 9.55 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.97 figure last season.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (280.0 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
- The model projects Brock Purdy to throw 32.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
