Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-160/+116).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 254.5 (+116) after it opened @ 255.5 (-106).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
Brock Purdy has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
Brock Purdy’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.4% to 71.4%.
Brock Purdy’s pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, notching 9.55 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.97 figure last season.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (280.0 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.

Cons

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
The model projects Brock Purdy to throw 32.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Projection

THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards