Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 218.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Andy Dalton has thrown for substantially more yards per game (214.0) this year than he did last year (183.0).
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 34.3 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 207.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (67.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
218
Passing Yards
218
Passing Yards
