Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 244.5 (-114).

Pros

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.3%).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, surrendering 8.65 yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in football.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Cons

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for substantially fewer yards per game (233.0) this season than he did last season (269.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
219
Passing Yards