Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+114/-157).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-157) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).

Cons

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards