Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the New York Giants as the 7th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 131.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 22.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Among all RBs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 97th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
Saquon Barkley has averaged 80.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (96th percentile).

Cons

A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
The Giants O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
This year, the poor New England Patriots run defense has conceded a whopping 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s run game: the 29th-largest rate in the NFL.
The Patriots safeties profile as the best unit in football this year with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
96
Rushing Yards