Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (+100) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the New York Giants as the 7th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 131.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 22.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Among all RBs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 97th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- Saquon Barkley has averaged 80.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (96th percentile).
Cons
- A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Giants O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- This year, the poor New England Patriots run defense has conceded a whopping 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s run game: the 29th-largest rate in the NFL.
- The Patriots safeties profile as the best unit in football this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Rushing Yards
96
Rushing Yards
