Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Samaje Perine from EV Insight

Samaje PerineRushing Yards

Right now, Samaje Perine’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to total 13.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Samaje Perine to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (57.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.9% in games he has played).
Samaje Perine has been among the top running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.36 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in football (just 79 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards