Randle Roundup: NBA Betting Trends of the Week (11/26)

The Roundup continues its weekly success, correctly identifying some key trends to help guide your NBA side, total, and prop wagering. Last week we correctly marked the increased usage of Detroit rookie Jaden Ivey (17 or more points in five of his last seven games), Klay Thompson’s upward trend (26.3 PPG last three), Myles Turner’s career season (20-plus points in three of five), and the immediate impact of Jaren Jackson’s return for Memphis (23.5 PPG, 4 BPG last two). 

Here are a few betting nuggets from seven more NBA teams as you consider your side, total, and prop bets for the upcoming week. 

Miami Heat

• Tyler Herro is starting to cook. After signing a four-year, $130 million contract, the expectations on his nightly production skyrocketed. After an inconsistent start, Herro had posted 24 PPG in his last three contests prior to Friday, including nine made threes in his last two games. There will be plenty of open shots from deep with three upcoming games against Boston (twice) and Memphis. His 11 points in last night’s win over Washington was offset by 10 assists (most to Bam Adebayo). Herro should even be able to find success in a tough matchup at Atlanta on Sunday. 
• Lost in the production of Herro has been the output from Max Strus. The 26-year-old shooting guard has raised his scoring over three points this month to 16.3 PPG. Strus has also averaged over 36 MPG and scored 19 or more points in three of his last four contests. Jimmy Butler’s recent knee injury has given a ton of opportunities for Strus, who has an insane 14 or more 3PA in two of his last three games. Despite battling a shoulder injury, Strus should be a major betting focus if in the starting lineup. He missed Friday’s game, which should keep him under the radar in the upcoming week. 

Milwaukee Bucks

• Bobby Portis has been Mr. Consistency for the Bucks. Portis has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in five of his last six games and saw his streak of 11 straight games with double-digit scoring end Wednesday. In Milwaukee’s 117-102 win over Cleveland Friday, Portis posted 14 points and eight rebounds in just 25 minutes. 
• Jrue Holiday returned Friday, which should bring future attention to his rebounding prop. It usually sits at plus-money for 4.5 rebounds, but Holiday is averaging 5.6 rebounds this month. On the season he is averaging 5.3 RPG, despite just a 4.0 RPG career average. 
• All-Star Khris Middleton seems close to returning from offseason wrist surgery. The surprise beneficiary has been center Brook Lopez, who is averaging 17 PPG this month. Lopez is also averaging 2.5 3PM in November, beating that magic 2.5 3PM prop in five of his last nine games. Lopez was a perfect 2-of-2 from deep in Friday’s win. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

• My preseason fade of Minnesota appears to be accurate. The presence of center Rudy Gobert has suppressed the production of forward Karl-Anthony Towns, who is averaging 3.0 fewer points per game and 0.8 fewer rebounds per game and shooting just 36% from 3P range on 1.6 more attempts per game. He has been under 24 PPG (his usual prop line) in five of his last eight games, including just 19 points (6-of-22 shooting) Friday. 
• Anthony Edwards has started to get hot from 3P range. Despite being just a 34.6% shooter from deep, Edwards has made three or more 3Ps in four of his last five games. He has also started to make his free throws, after a cold October start (64.3%).
• Rudy Gobert’s rebounding prop remains high (13.5), despite some major inconsistency on a per-game basis. Gobert had been under this number in six of his last seven games prior to last night’s explosion against Charlotte. Gobert grabbed 17 rebounds against a woefully poor Charlotte interior and is averaging just 12.6 RPG on the season. His minutes per game are also down (31.7 MPG), allowing for fewer chances. He’s a hard fade for me in the upcoming matchups, and Friday’s performance will help those unders. 

New Orleans Pelicans

• Zion Williamson is an explosive player that the public loves to back, but should they? Williamson’s points prop for Saturday’s matchup with Memphis was 25.5, a number he has only beaten in two non-overtime games this season. Last night that was his exact prop and he finished with just 14 points in a blowout loss to Memphis. 
• My favorite value is point guard Jose Alvarado, who always gets a bump when a starter is out. In games he has seen at least 20 minutes, Alvarado is averaging 10.8 PPG and had a season-high nine-assist game against the Spurs. When given a chance, Alvarado always produces. Friday’s seven-point game is an outlier in a blowout. 

New York Knicks

• Julius Randle was in a major slump to start the season, but there appears to be signs of life. In 12 games this month, Randle has posted 22 PPG, a four-point improvement from last month. He has also improved his accuracy from the field to 48.1%, and his 3P percentage to 36.1%. Randle has hit two or more 3Ps in six of his last seven games, a huge change from five consecutive games at the start of November with just one total 3P made. 
• The presence of Jalen Brunson has hurt the production of RJ Barrett, who has seen a reduction in points, rebounds, assists, and 3P percentage from last season. Barrett has broken 20 points in just one of the Knicks last six games. Barrett was only 1-of-7 from 3P range in last night’s overtime home loss to Portland. He is a fade until further notice. 
• Brunson has gone in the other direction, scoring 21 or more points in five of the last six contests. His only area of struggle has been from 3P range, where he is shooting just 29.7% from deep despite over four attempts per game. Hopefully, Friday’s 3-of-8 performance can be the start of some positive regression. 

Oklahoma City Thunder 

• It is difficult to name five players at a higher level than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On the season, he is averaging 31.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game, while shooting 38% from 3P and 52% from the field on a career-best 21.3 attempts. He has scored 30 or more points in six of his last seven games, an all-time high. 
• Josh Giddey has slowly improved his efficiency in all areas and is averaging a career-best 15.1 PPG this month. He posted a triple-double Nov. 13 against the Knicks and has six or more assists in his last four games. Friday in the Thunder win over the Bulls? Giddey posts 10 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists. 
• Don’t sleep on Lugeuntz Dort’s production from deep. Dort has hit three or more threes in four of the last six games, and five of the last eight contests. His 3PM prop is almost always around 1.5, but with high juice. Regardless, it’s a solid moneymaker for the foreseeable future. 

Orlando Magic 

• Rookie Paolo Banchero played for the first time since Nov. 11 due to an ankle injury. He posted a solid 19 points, a far cry from the consecutive 30- and 33-point outings he produced prior to his injury. It’s worth noting he started the month on a rebounding tear, with 32 rebounds in Orlando’s first three games in the month. 
• Is it officially Bol Bol season? The 23-year-old, 7-foot-2 center has posted 14.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting an insane 48% from 3P on 25 attempts. Friday’s line? 18 points, 8 rebounds and four blocks.