Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 47.9% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- When talking about blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Bears grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year.
- With a terrific total of 3.21 yards after contact (85th percentile), Khalil Herbert places as one of the unyielding running backs in football this year.
Cons
- This game’s line implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
- Khalil Herbert has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this year, playing on 55.7% of snaps compared to just 34.9% last year.
- This year, the feeble Minnesota Vikings run defense has allowed a massive 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing squads: the largest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
