NFL

Bets

November 26, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
This year, the weak New York Giants defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing squads: a massive 8.23 yards.
The New York Giants defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Giants cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Cons

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect Mac Jones to throw 26.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.
When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
167
Passing Yards