NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
- This year, the weak New York Giants defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing squads: a massive 8.23 yards.
- The New York Giants defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Giants cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Mac Jones to throw 26.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.
- When talking about pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
167
Passing Yards
167
Passing Yards
