Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keaton MitchellRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chargers vs. Ravens
Right now, Keaton Mitchell’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-115) after it opened @ 40.5 (+100).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run 66.5 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Los Angeles’s unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Cons
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
