Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Panthers
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to run on 49.8% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Derrick Henry to notch 21.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- With a fantastic tally of 3.16 yards after contact (80th percentile), Derrick Henry places among the most formidable RBs in the NFL this year.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) against the Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.1% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- After comprising 80.1% of his team’s carries last season, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the run game this season, currently taking on just 69.1%.
- Derrick Henry has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
