Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to run on 49.8% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
The projections expect Derrick Henry to notch 21.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a fantastic tally of 3.16 yards after contact (80th percentile), Derrick Henry places among the most formidable RBs in the NFL this year.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (141 per game) against the Panthers defense this year.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.1% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
After comprising 80.1% of his team’s carries last season, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the run game this season, currently taking on just 69.1%.
Derrick Henry has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards