MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-125) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 22.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.1% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- David Montgomery has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.11 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
