NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chiefs vs. Rams
Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Bryce Perkins in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 16.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Rushing Yards
25
Rushing Yards
