Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kyren Williams from EV Insight

Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+105) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends profile as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Bryce Perkins in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a big 16.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Rushing Yards