Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+112) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).
Pros
- A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Alexander Mattison has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be forced to use backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to run on 38.4% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- The Bears defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
