Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alexander Mattison from EV Insight

Alexander MattisonRushing Yards

Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+112) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
Alexander Mattison has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be forced to use backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to run on 38.4% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Bears defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.64 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards