NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Wan’Dale RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Wan’Dale Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- A throwing game script is implied by the Giants being a -4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 131.6 offensive plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 77.9% to 81.8%.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New England’s unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Wan’Dale Robinson has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Wan’Dale Robinson has been relied on much less in his team’s pass game.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the New York Giants ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s 29.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a substantial decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 39.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
