Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Panthers
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (+100/-130).
Pros
- The projections expect the Panthers offensive strategy to skew 6.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- While Tommy Tremble has garnered 4.2% of his offense’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Carolina’s pass game this week at 11.0%.
- Tommy Tremble’s possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 62.0% to 85.8%.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Titans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
- Tommy Tremble has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (7.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- Tommy Tremble checks in as one of the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
