NFL

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November 22, 2023

Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be forced to use backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.
The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to total 10.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson’s ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, averaging a mere 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last year.
This year, the fierce Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 3.3 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards