Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per snap.
This year, the anemic Bengals defense has surrendered a staggering 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst in the league.
The Bengals pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.49 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Pat Freiermuth has been a less important option in his team’s passing game this season (9.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.9%).
After accumulating 50.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has been a disappointment this year, now boasting 16.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
Pat Freiermuth’s 13.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards