Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight

Marquise BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-107/-122).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 94.5% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
The predictive model expects Marquise Brown to total 7.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
Marquise Brown’s 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last season’s 60.0 figure.
The Rams pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) to wideouts this year (58.4%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards