NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the projection model to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average).
- The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Kylen Granson has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.2% pass rate.
- Kylen Granson’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 77.7% to 63.0%.
- Kylen Granson’s 6.0 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 7.3 figure.
- The Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.6%) versus TEs this year (69.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
