Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-120/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-120) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a staggering 61.9 per game on average).
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- This week, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.
- Kyle Pitts grades out as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The projections expect the Falcons as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment this season, now sitting at 61.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 6.6% figure.
- The Saints pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. tight ends this year (67.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
