Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a staggering 61.9 per game on average).
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- The model projects Drake London to accrue 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- With a terrific 55.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) this year, Drake London rates among the best wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- The projections expect the Falcons as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Drake London’s 23.3% Target Share this year marks a remarkable drop-off in his air attack utilization over last year’s 29.1% rate.
- The Saints pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (59.9%).
- The Saints pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 7.25 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New Orleans’s CB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
